Significant month-end buying helped markets take the sharp edge off one of the worst months of trading since 2011. Adding to the month-end flows, was further speculation that the ECB would no longer be able to sit on their hands and would need to speed up the monetary printing press. Talk now is that they won’t finalise anything until the December meeting, but are likely to increase the amount of money and time they throw at QE. The ECB are hopeful that the Fed will raise rates, as this will put downward pressure on the the single currency, back towards parity with the Dollar – this would increase import prices and lift inflation, but the market clearly doesn’t think this alone will be enough to satisfy Mario Draghi and his team.
Oil prices have bounced up a little bit, giving some relief in the wider commodity market and, once again Glencore looks to be less in trouble than it was at the start of the week – in fact, their share price is almost exactly back to where it was before they crashed. That said, Glencore debt is now being quoted in junk bond terminology and apparently anything longer than five years is trading at 70 pence on the Pound. So short term confidence is back, but the longer term is still cause for concern.
Credit Suisse are at risk if Glencore do go to the wall. German press is reporting that the Swiss bank are one of the largest lenders to Glencore and also have a total of 48.5bn euros invested in raw commodities and real estate, which is showing losses because of the slump in commodities and also when reporting back to a Swiss balance sheet because of the large appreciation in the Swiss Franc versus the US Dollar – the trading currency and value benchmark of all commodities.
Further afield, the World Trade Organisation have cut their global growth forecasts and warned that they might have to cut further if emerging markets don’t start to stabilise. The WTO has reduced this year’s global growth numbers from 3.3% to 2.8%, which still sounds respectable-ish, but is a 15% reduction in the amount of growth they expect to see and it’s not as if the number was incredibly high to start with.
The news from the WTO was echoed by the IMF who yesterday warned of “disappointing and uneven” growth in the global economy. This was backed up overnight by Chinese economic data, which was far from welcoming. China’s Caixin factory PMI numbers fell to a six and a half year low. Attempting to counter the slowdown, Beijing announced a couple of measures to boost consumption, hoping to bring some good news ahead of the Golden Week holiday, which started today. First time buyers will have to find 25% deposit as a minimum instead of 305 and those buying cars have seen the sales tax halved – with bigger discounts probably available on VW’s and Audis.
The acceptance of sorts by the US for Russia to start anti-IS bombing campaigns in Syria looks to have backfired, with reports that Putin has started by bombing CIA backed rebel groups in Syria who are opponents of Assad. Though Moscow insists it is tackling only IS combatants. There’s more in the Wall Street Journal.
Today we look at UK, European and US manufacturing numbers, more US jobs data and plenty of central bank speakers. The Chinese holiday has meant that nobody wa around to trade off the bad news and, so far, last month’s closing rally has continued into Q4, with equities getting swiftly out of the blocks.